Merced, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

410
FXUS66 KHNX 070502
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1002 PM PDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.UPDATE...
Update Aviation Section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Temperatures will lower a few degrees, but still above
normal, on Monday then rise to well above normal by the middle
of next week.

2. Dry weather will prevail through next weekend.

3. Warm and dry conditions are favored to persist in the longer
term, with a 33 to 50 percent chance for leaning above normal
temperatures and 40 to 50 percent chance for leaning below
normal precipitation in the 8 to 14 day period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A sunny day with expected highs in the upper 70s will give way
to clouds and slightly cooler temperatures by Monday. A storm is
currently pushing ashore over extreme Northern California and
is projected to swing south across the area on Monday. With a
subtropical tap, higher moisture levels will increase confidence
in measurable precipitation north of the Central California
Interior. Latest ensemble upper-air analysis has the storms
energy on a trajectory toward Northern California with a slight
chance of brushing Central California. Currently, only the
Yosemite area is registering probabilities around 15% on Monday
for precipitation values at or just above one-one hundredths of
a inch. In addition, will see an increase in winds during storm
passage. Current probabilities coverage of reaching 45 mph is
nominal and generally below 20%. Will see breezy conditions over
the favored areas, but will stay below wind product criteria.
Otherwise, Central California will remain dry at the start of
the work week as a warming trend will take temperatures well
into the 80s by later in the week.

Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 85 degrees start at
near zero and rise to 80%-90% from Fresno south by Thursday.
Therefore, confidence is high in having a warming trend this
week before a cool down over the weekend. By Saturday, PoE drops
to 10%-30% with no indication of rising into early next week.
Probability of Measurable Precipitation outside of Tioga Pass
and Hetch Hetchy will remain at below 10% for the period. Even
then, Probabilities at the two sites will remain below 20% with
thick cloud cover being more favorable. Ensemble mean snow
levels for this event sit at 8,000 feet but could dip as low as
6,000 feet under the 25th percentile. Yet, will lean more toward
the mean snow level values.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update:
VFR conditions will persist across the central California
interior across the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Public/Aviation....Molina

weather.gov/hanford